3.6 Hypotheses & Experiments

Every new venture begins with hypotheses – guesses about customers, pricing, features, etc. Your job is to treat each hypothesis as a mini-question to test. Use business-model tools or the Value Proposition Canvas to list your critical assumptions (will customers pay? can we build it for this cost? etc.).

For each assumption, design an experiment. Strategyzer suggests identifying hypotheses about desirability (market risk), feasibility (technical risk), and viability (financial risk), then prioritizing the riskiest ones. For example, you might hypothesize that “Students will want an app that saves class notes and will pay $2/month for it.” You would then test this by creating a landing page or survey asking students about their note-taking habits. If very few click through or sign up, that hypothesis is disproved. On the other hand, if you get many signups, you’ve validated that part of your idea.

The goal is validated learning. Each experiment (interviews, landing pages, prototypes) gives feedback. You compare the results to the hypothesis: it could be true, false, or unclear. For instance, Buffer added a payment page in their MVP and found that many users still clicked through and even selected paid plans – a strong signal the pricing was acceptable. In general, if a hypothesis fails, you learn what customers don’t want and adjust. If it succeeds, you gain confidence to build more. Repeat experiments keep sharpening your product idea.