2.3 Assessing and Comparing Opportunities

When you have a problem to solve, ask: How many people face this problem? How badly? Will they pay for a solution? In other words, prioritize opportunities that affect many customers or cause great pain, and where you can make money solving it. One way to compare ideas is an “innovation tournament”. Generate many raw ideas (like an early-round bracket) and then filter them through quick tests. As innovation expert Karl Ulrich suggests: “Before you commit hours, months, or years, you ought to consider five to 10 distinct opportunities. Make small bets on each one, then pick the best to develop”. In practice, sketch out 5–10 ideas or segments, research each lightly (interviews, quick models), and only then focus full efforts on the strongest. This “tournament” approach avoids spending too much time on a single unproven idea.

For each idea, also analyze the potential market. Segment the market by customer groups: you can’t serve everyone at once, so decide exactly who you want to reach (your focal market). Good segmentation forces clear priorities and efficient use of resources. A practical tip is to answer the “3 W’s”: Who are these customers (age, job, behavior)? What do they currently do to solve the problem? Why would they switch to your solution. Once segments are identified, rank them by size, growth rate, and profitability. This means targeting the largest or fastest-growing niche first – a classic startup strategy of focusing on a beachhead market. In short, figure out who exactly has the problem and serve them better than anyone else.